Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in North America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • US
  • Mexico
  • Panama
  • Belize
  • Costa Rica
  • Canada
  • Honduras
  • Guatemala
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Trinidad and Tobago
  • Jamaica

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,655,591$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{393,379,969.7}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 576.3)}}\) (asimptote \(393,379,969.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $316,159$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{305,064.2}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 142.1)}}\) (asimptote \(305,064.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,339,432$ on 2020-12-19

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,313,675$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,333,961.8}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 180.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,333,961.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $117,876$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{113,154.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 147.0)}}\) (asimptote \(113,154.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $224,684$ on 2020-12-19

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $209,584$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{205,848.3}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 191.7)}}\) (asimptote \(205,848.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,527$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,235.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 158.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,235.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,312$ on 2020-12-19

Belize⮸

Population $397,628$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,791$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{365,975.1}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 432.1)}}\) (asimptote \(365,975.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $213$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{854.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 290.5)}}\) (asimptote \(854.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,799$ on 2020-12-19

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $157,472$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{167,433.6}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 213.9)}}\) (asimptote \(167,433.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,996$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,039.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 204.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,039.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,988$ on 2020-12-19

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $505,741$ on 2020-12-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $14,171$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,145.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 62.0)}}\) (asimptote \(10,145.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $74,669$ on 2020-12-19

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $116,212$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116,708.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 164.9)}}\) (asimptote \(116,708.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,023$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,966.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 142.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,966.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $59,187$ on 2020-12-19

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $132,595$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{125,260.8}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 153.3)}}\) (asimptote \(125,260.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,624$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,142.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 130.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,142.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,256$ on 2020-12-19

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Trinidad and Tobago recovered 83%
Jamaica recovered 34%

Trinidad and Tobago⮸

Population $1,399,488$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,974$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,520.4}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 188.6)}}\) (asimptote \(6,520.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $123$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{121.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 181.4)}}\) (asimptote \(121.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $425$ on 2020-12-19

Jamaica⮸

Population $2,961,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,135$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,752.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 201.1)}}\) (asimptote \(11,752.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $285$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{276.2}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 207.1)}}\) (asimptote \(276.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,038$ on 2020-12-19