Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $17,655,591$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{393,379,969.7}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 576.3)}}\) (asimptote \(393,379,969.7\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $316,159$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{305,064.2}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 142.1)}}\) (asimptote \(305,064.2\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,339,432$ on 2020-12-19
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,313,675$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,333,961.8}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 180.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,333,961.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $117,876$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{113,154.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 147.0)}}\) (asimptote \(113,154.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $224,684$ on 2020-12-19
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $209,584$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{205,848.3}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 191.7)}}\) (asimptote \(205,848.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,527$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,235.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 158.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,235.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,312$ on 2020-12-19
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,791$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{365,975.1}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 432.1)}}\) (asimptote \(365,975.1\))
Start date 2020-04-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $213$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{854.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 290.5)}}\) (asimptote \(854.4\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,799$ on 2020-12-19
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $157,472$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{167,433.6}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 213.9)}}\) (asimptote \(167,433.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,996$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,039.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 204.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,039.1\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,988$ on 2020-12-19
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $505,741$ on 2020-12-19
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $14,171$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,145.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 62.0)}}\) (asimptote \(10,145.3\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $74,669$ on 2020-12-19
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $116,212$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116,708.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 164.9)}}\) (asimptote \(116,708.3\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,023$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,966.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 142.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,966.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $59,187$ on 2020-12-19
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $132,595$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{125,260.8}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 153.3)}}\) (asimptote \(125,260.8\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,624$ on 2020-12-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,142.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 130.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,142.6\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,256$ on 2020-12-19